At a crossroads: New research predicts which cars are likeliest to run lights at intersections

ScienceDaily (Nov. 30, 2011) — In 2008, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2.3 million automobile crashes occurred at intersections across the United States, resulting in some 7,000 deaths. More than 700 of those fatalities were due to drivers running red lights. But, according to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, half of the people killed in such accidents are not the drivers who ran the light, but other drivers, passengers and pedestrians.

In order to reduce the number of accidents at intersections, researchers at MIT have devised an algorithm that predicts when an oncoming car is likely to run a red light. Based on parameters such as the vehicle's deceleration and its distance from a light, the group was able to determine which cars were potential "violators" -- those likely to cross into an intersection after a light has turned red -- and which were "compliant."

The researchers tested the algorithm on data collected from an intersection in Virginia, finding that it accurately identified potential violators within a couple of seconds of reaching a red light -- enough time, according to the researchers, for other drivers at an intersection to be able to react to the threat if alerted. Compared to other efforts to model driving behavior, the MIT algorithm generated fewer false alarms, an important advantage for systems providing guidance to human drivers. The researchers report their findings in a paper that will appear in the journal IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

Jonathan How, the Richard Cockburn Maclaurin Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics at MIT, says "smart" cars of the future may use such algorithms to help drivers anticipate and avoid potential accidents.

Video: See the team's algorithm in action as robots are able to negotiate a busy intersection and avoid potential accidents.

"If you had some type of heads-up display for the driver, it might be something where the algorithms are analyzing and saying, 'We're concerned,'" says How, who is one of the paper's authors. "Even though your light might be green, it may recommend you not go, because there are people behaving badly that you may not be aware of."

How says that in order to implement such warning systems, vehicles would need to be able to "talk" with each other, wirelessly sending and receiving information such as a car's speed and position data. Such vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication, he says, can potentially improve safety and avoid traffic congestion. Today, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) is exploring V2V technology, along with several major car manufacturers -- including Ford Motor Company, which this year has been road-testing prototypes with advanced Wi-Fi and collision-avoidance systems.

"You might have a situation where you get a snowball effect where, much more rapidly than people envisioned, this [V2V] technology may be accepted," How says.

In the meantime, researchers including How are developing algorithms to analyze vehicle data that would be broadcast via such V2V systems. Georges Aoude SM '07, PhD '11, a former student of How's, designed an algorithm based on a technique that has been successfully applied in many artificial intelligence domains, but is relatively new to the transportation field. This algorithm is able to capture a vehicle's motion in multiple dimensions using a highly accurate and efficient classifier that can be executed in less than five milliseconds.

Along with colleagues Vishnu Desaraju SM '10 and Lauren Stephens, an MIT undergraduate, How and Aoude tested the algorithm using an extensive set of traffic data collected at a busy intersection in Christianburg, Va. The intersection was heavily monitored as part of a safety-prediction project sponsored by the DOT. The DOT outfitted the intersection with a number of instruments that tracked vehicle speed and location, as well as when lights turned red.

Aoude and colleagues applied their algorithm to data from more than 15,000 approaching vehicles at the intersection, and found that it was able to correctly identify red-light violators 85 percent of the time -- an improvement of 15 to 20 percent over existing algorithms.

The researchers were able to predict, within a couple of seconds, whether a car would run a red light. The researchers actually found a "sweet spot" -- one to two seconds in advance of a potential collision -- when the algorithm has the highest accuracy and when a driver may still have enough time to react.

Compared to similar safety-prediction technologies, the group found that its algorithm generated fewer false positives. How says this may be due to the algorithm's ability to analyze multiple parameters. He adds that other algorithms tend to be "skittish," erring on the side of caution in flagging potential problems, which may itself be a problem when cars are outfitted with such technology.

"The challenge is, you don't want to be overly pessimistic," How says. "If you're too pessimistic, you start reporting there's a problem when there really isn't, and then very rapidly, the human's going to push a button that turns this thing off."

The researchers are now investigating ways to design a closed-loop system -- to give drivers a recommendation of what to do in response to a potential accident -- and are also planning to adapt the existing algorithm to air traffic control, to predict the behavior of aircraft.

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Some atheist scientists with children embrace religious traditions, according to new research

ScienceDaily (Dec. 1, 2011) — Some atheist scientists with children embrace religious traditions for social and personal reasons, according to research from Rice University and the University at Buffalo -- The State University of New York (SUNY).

The study also found that some atheist scientists want their children to know about different religions so their children can make informed decisions about their own religious preferences.

"Our research shows just how tightly linked religion and family are in U.S. society -- so much so that even some of society's least religious people find religion to be important in their private lives," said Rice sociologist Elaine Howard Ecklund, the study's principal investigator and co-author of a paper in the December issue of the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.

The researchers found that 17 percent of atheists with children attended a religious service more than once in the past year.

The research was conducted through interviews with a scientifically selected sample of 275 participants pulled from a survey of 2,198 tenured and tenure-track faculty in the natural and social sciences at 21 elite U.S. research universities. Approximately half of the original survey population expressed some form of religious identity, whereas the other half did not.

The individuals surveyed cited personal and social reasons for integrating religion into their lives, including:

Scientific identity -- Study participants wish to expose their children to all sources of knowledge (including religion) and allow them to make their own choices about a religious identity.Spousal influence -- Study participants are involved in a religious institution because of influence from their spouse or partner.Desire for community -- Study participants want a sense of moral community and behavior, even if they don't agree with the religious reasoning.

Ecklund said one of the most interesting findings was discovering that not only do some atheist scientists wish to expose their children to religious institutions, but they also cite their scientific identity as reason for doing so.

"We thought that these individuals might be less inclined to introduce their children to religious traditions, but we found the exact opposite to be true," Ecklund said. "They want their children to have choices, and it is more consistent with their science identity to expose their children to all sources of knowledge."

One study participant raised in a strongly Catholic home said he came to believe later that science and religion were not compatible. He said what he wants to pass on to his daughter -- more than the belief that science and religion are not compatible -- is the ability to make her own decisions in a thoughtful, intellectual way.

"I … don't indoctrinate her that she should believe in God," the study participant said. "I don't indoctrinate her into not believing in God." He said he sees himself as accomplishing this by exposing her to a variety of religious choices, including Christianity, Islam, Buddhism and others.

Ecklund said the study's findings will help the public better understand the role that religious institutions play in society.

"I think that understanding how nonreligious scientists utilize religion in family life demonstrates the important function they have in the U.S.," she said.

Ecklund is the author of "Science vs. Religion: What Scientists Really Think,"published by Oxford University Press last year.

The paper was co-authored by University at Buffalo SUNY sociologist Kristen Schultz Lee. A grant from the John Templeton Foundation and funding from Rice supported the research.

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Journal Reference:

Elaine Howard Ecklund, Kristen Schultz Lee. Atheists and Agnostics Negotiate Religion and Family. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Volume 50, Issue 4, pages 728%u2013743, December 2011 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5906.2011.01604.x

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Implications of Mortgage Selling on Your Loan Provider Research

A lot of homeowners have done a thorough research about lenders prior to they predetermine a special one. They kept paying their home loan regularly and developed an excellent standing with their loan provider. Suddenly, one day they got a letter informing that their lender has been amalgamated, merged with one other, assigned their mortgage to a fresh company or is bankrupt.

This happens to a lot of people without regard to how they obtain their mortgage. When a small provincial lender go on writing mortgage business eternally, a sizeable countrywide lender may be amalgamated. Mortgages get tranferred everyday. Mortgage banks are amalgamated or merged or gone out of business. This is not something new. In fact several lenders underwrite home loans for the sole objective of trading them in the secondary mortgage market. The time applicants used to attain their home mortgages from a local lender and remain with it till the end has passed.

The fact remains that you would need to find out the best home mortgage rates when you are looking for a new mortgage or refinance without bothering too much about what could become of the lender. Once you attain a mortgage loan you keep paying it as expected till you are told otherwise even your bank is stressed or in the progress of closing down.

Your mortgage loan is an important asset to any lender and some other firm would purchase it eventually. The positive news is that nearly every time your loan rates, payments and other conditions are secured in your agreement. Just the address and the name of the firm could change. Regardless, you continue sending the payments as expected to the last known address and lender till you are requested differently. Do not make the wrong move of stopping your payments in at any rate. That will lead to troubles for you. In addition, pursuing to discovery a solid lender for as long as your home loan period may be a pointless effort since the recent developments in the business have proved it.

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